5.01 · Dream Big, or Not?

Dream Big, or Not?
Two slogans, four kinds of evidence: which advice should you trust?

“Follow your dreams!” says one voice. “Be realistic!” says another. Many of us hear both in the same week, and we disagree about which one to trust. Should we aim for something huge, or choose a goal that we are sure to reach? A slogan can’t answer that question, but evidence can, so let’s look at some.

First, a fact. In 2002, the psychologists Edwin Locke and Gary Latham summarized thirty-five years of research on goals. Specific, difficult goals led to better performance than easy goals or a vague “do your best.” The goals were hard, but not impossible. An easy goal feels safe, but it asks for little, and it is easy to underestimate what we can do.

Second, an example. In 1900, many people thought that a flying machine was an unrealistic dream. Wilbur and Orville Wright did not give up. They built a wind tunnel and tested more than two hundred wing shapes. Their dream came with a plan: on December 17, 1903, their first powered flight lasted twelve seconds and covered 120 feet. It was a short flight, but it was a start.

Dreams can also go wrong, says the psychologist Gabriele Oettingen. In one of her studies, she followed forty graduates who were looking for jobs. Those who most enjoyed picturing their future jobs sent fewer applications. Two years later, they had received fewer job offers and were earning less money. In her view, a beautiful picture of success can make us relax too soon. Her advice is to imagine the wish, then think about the obstacle, and then make a plan. I think that an overconfident dreamer often stops after the first step.

Third, a story. Last year, my friend Daniel was going to finish a video game by himself in three months. He told us he would work on it every weekend. But he misunderstood how the game engine works, and in the second month he had to rewrite his code twice. He finished a smaller game in ten months, and he is proud of it. “I didn’t fail,” he says. “I just changed the plan.”

So which evidence is the strongest? The story is easy to remember, but it is only one case. The example shows what is possible, but only for two brothers. The expert’s study is smaller, but it measured real results, so I trust it more than the example or the story. The research summarizes thirty-five years of studies, so I trust it most. Together, the evidence says: dream big, turn the dream into a plan with small steps, and be ready to rewrite the plan. I disagree with both slogans. A dream with no plan is only a wish, and a plan with no dream is only a chore.